www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=BDYCRFWYJLEDOQSNDLRSKH0CJUNN2JVN?articleID=208802992
AI Beats Human Poker Champions
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PORTLAND, Ore. — Humanity was dealt a decisive blow by a poker-playing artificial intelligence program called Polaris during the Man-Machine Poker Competition in Las Vegas. Poker champs fought the AI system to a draw, then won in the first two of four rounds (each round had Polaris playing 500 hands against two humans, whose points were averaged.)
But in the final two rounds of the match, Polaris beat both human teams, two wins out of four, with one loss and one draw. IBM's Deep Blue beat chess champion Gary Kasparov in 1997. A year later, the University of Alberta's Computer Poker Research Group began winning hands with early prototypes that eventually became Polaris.
A decade later, Polaris 2.0 added poker to the list of machine triumphs. The key to Polaris' poker prowess last weekend was a tactical shift in midstream designed to prevent human's from exploiting perceived weaknesses. Add to that, Polaris learned from experience. "There are two really big changes in Polaris over last year," said professor Michael Bowling, who supervised graduate students who programmed Polaris. "First of all, our poker model is much expanded over last year--its much harder for humans to exploit weaknesses.
And secondly, we have added an element of learning, where Polaris identifies which common poker stratagy a human is using and switches its own strategy to counter. This complicated the human players ability to compare notes, since Polaris chose a different strategy to use against each of the humans it played," Bowling said.Before the Las Vegas match, this newest version of Polaris had only played two matches against champion poker players, resulting in one loss and one victory.
Polaris repeated the pattern of improving as it learned, falling to humans in the first two rounds, but defeating them in rounds three and four. "Repeatedly, I heard players exclaim that they had never seen a human do that before," said Bowling. "Switching strategies really threw the humans for a loop." Polaris played against Nick "Stoxtrader" Grudzien--a $1 million poker contest winner and founder of a Web site which provides poker-coaching and online play with world champions.
Other human champions were coaches on Grudzien's site. In the first Man-Machine Poker Competition, two human champions beat Polaris in its last two matches, but Polaris won and played to a draw in the first two. The older version of Polaris did not learn, but the humans did, beating Polaris 1.0 in three of four rounds by exploiting weaknesses. Polaris 2.0 had learning built into its programming, thereby countering the learning ability of the humans by switching strategies whenever they did.
Even though Polaris beat the humans in Las Vegas, the University of Alberta group said it expects to be asked for rematches by the vanquished pros as well as by other poker experts who will claim the win by Polaris was a fluke. "Even after Deep Blue beat Kasparov, there were still some skeptics, and I think the same is true here," said Bowling. "Over the next year or so there are going to have to be several rematches before everyone is convinced that humans have been surpassed by machines in poker."
Meanwhile, Bowling's group plans to expand Polaris beyond its current limitations, enabling it to play more complicated poker games than its current heads-up, hold-em version. They also plan to expand efforts to apply the poker-playing algorithms to useful applications. "The techniques we are devising have broad applications outside of poker," said Bowling. "For instance, wireless sensor networks are exploring one of our poker-like algorithms to lay out sensors in buildings in a way that yields better understanding of how heat flow patterns affect efficiency."
One algorithm, called counter-factual regret, monitored the outcome of hands lost by Polaris and what could have been done to change the outcome. Polaris could then watch for similar circumstances and adjust more effectively. BioTools Inc. (Edmonton, Alberta) has built previous versions of Polaris into a downloadable poker coach called the Poker Academy.
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11 Aug 2006
Clive Akass, Personal Computer World
www.pcw.co.uk/personal-computer-world/analysis/2162044/man-gave-bill-gates-world
Gary Kildall Was One of the Founding Fathers of the PC
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The birth of the IBM PC was also the making of Bill Gates, thanks to a door-step farce that has become an industry legend. IBM at the time had dominated the industry for a quarter-century, though it had been late getting into digital computers, and even later getting into what were then called microcomputers, which it tried to pretend were not a threat to its mainframe business. By the late 1980s ‘micros’ (as in Microsoft) could not be ignored, and IBM set up a team to design one.
The obvious person to provide the software was Gary Kildall, head of a company called Digital Research, who had written CP/M – the operating system used on almost all micros. Legend has it that two suits from IBM called by appointment at Kildall’s home, but he was off flying and had left his wife Dorothy to do the talking. She baulked at signing a non-disclosure agreement and showed them the door. So they turned instead to a fledgling company run by a 24-year-old college dropout whose name was Bill Gates.
Microsoft did not even have an operating system and promptly bought one called QDos, virtually a CP/M clone, for $50,000 from a Seattle engineer called Tim Patterson. The legend is essentially true, though what really hassled Dorothy Kildall when IBM showed up was the fact that she was preparing to go on holiday the next day, according to former Symantec chief executive Gordon Eubanks, who knew everyone involved.
No-one at the time knew that the IBM computer was going to become the industry’s major standard platform. And the real reason Kildall did not get the contract was that he was simply too laid back to be a good businessman, Eubanks told me in 1996. “Gary could have owned this business [ie, computing] if he had made the right strategic decisions... He did not care that much. Dorothy ran the business and he ran the technical side, and they did not get on.” It was Gates who had the vision. “Bill was extremely focused and driven,” Eubanks recalled.
Microsoft tweaked QDos a little and called it MS-Dos. It ended up running in nine out of 10 of the world’s PCs, and traces of it can still be found buried in Windows XP.CP/M lingered on for a few years and Novell bought Digital Research in 1991. Kildall died in 1994 at the age of 52 from injuries received in a biker bar brawl during a night out in Monterey, California. Kildall was one of the founding fathers of desktop computing, but he seems destined to go down in history as the man who gave Bill Gates the world. * For a longer version of the 1996 Gordon Eubanks interview see here.
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http://artesian.blogspot.com/2006/03/of-demons-and-oracles.html
A Shrine Sacred to the God Apollo
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Back in the day when Christianity was a new young religion, the great intellectual minds of Greece and Rome still pondered the old mysteries. There were many schools of thought that provided the answers to the big questions, and thousands of disciples followed in the steps of the Epicureans, the Stoics, the Peripatetics, and many others.
Some of the less prominent thinkers dealt with smaller, yet still important issues, like the "Training of Children", the "First Principle of Cold," the "Three Sorts of Government," the "Virtues of Women," "Whether it is Good Manners to Talk Philosophy at the Dinner Table," "Why Mushrooms are Produced by Thunder," and "Why Women do not Eat the Middle Part of a Lettuce."
The author of all of the above treatises is none other than the inestimable Plutarch, more famed for his Lives of Famous Greeks and Romans than his philosophical inquiries. Among his list of philosophical dialogues is one that discuss the possible "Passing of the Oracles." Oracles had long been a part of life throughout Grecian, and thus Roman culture.
Stories about the various predictions of oracles abound, almost as much as those stories in Livy about a sheep giving birth to a calf in the forum, while lighting struck the temple of Jupiter Capitolinus three times, thus signifying a defeat of the Samnites or some such enemy of Rome. Probably the most famous of all oracles is that of the Oracle at Delphi, a shrine sacred to the god Apollo.
Herodotus, in Book I of his Histories, tell the story of that fabled king of Lydia, Croesus. Having decided to find out which oracle was the true one, Croesus devised a test. He sent out messengers to every known oracle, with instructions for each messenger to wait until one hundred days before consulting the oracle to which they had been sent. On the one hundredth day from when they set out from Sardis (Croesus' capital), they would ask the oracle what Croesus was doing at that exact time.
They would bring back the various responses, sealed, and Croesus would then determine which oracles correctly identified his actions. After the messengers departed, he racked his brain trying to come up with the most bizarre thing he could be doing, so as to throw off those oracles that weren't truly prophetic. He come up with the idea of chopping up a turtle and a lamb, and tossing them in a brass cauldron, and making soup out of it.
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After a long time, the answers all came back, and only the oracle at Delphi nailed it. The priestess there, called the Pythoness because Apollo supposedly slew a python that dwelt there when he founded the temple, said, in the poetry peculiar to pagan prophectic priestesses, "Oooh, I smell turtle, and...lamb...and there's lots of brass. Cooking...stew!
Oh, that sounds good. I want turtle stew." Okay, okay, those weren't the priestesses exact words, but that's pretty much the idea. Anyhow, Croesus was convinced, and then asked if he should attack Persia, and if he would come out on top if he did? The oracle told him that he would destroy a mighty empire if he attacked Persia, which was all the encouragement Croesus needed. He attacked Cyrus' burgeoning empire, and destroyed his own magnificent Lydian empire by doing so.
Whoops! So you can see, those oracles can be tricky. In Plutarch's day, however, there was a good deal of curiosity over why the oracles seemed to have gone silent. So much so, that Plutarch tackled the problem in a philosophical treatise. He asks the question: where have all the oracles gone? For some reason, in his day, oracular prophecy seems to have dried up like a desert streambed in the dry season. Among the stories the people in his dialogue relate, is that of a man named Epitherses.
According to the story, this man was sailing on a ship near some islands in the Aegean Sea, when a voice from one of the islands hailed their Egyptian pilot by name, which was weird because nobody on the ship had bothered to learn the guy's name. Anyhow, the voice called Thamus (for that was his name) three times, and when the bewildered pilot answered. The voice told him that when he was opposite a certain place, he was to shout out from the ship, "Great Pan is dead!" Everyone of the ship was in awe, but the pilot did as he was asked.
As the ship drew across from the appointed place, Thamus shouted "Great Pan is dead!" Immediately there arose a sound of a multitude of voices wailing in sorrow from the land. Pan, it should be mentioned, is a kind of goaty god of pastures and sheep and stuff. The story spread quickly after that, so much so that Tiberius Caesar (the imperial heir of Augustus, who ruled from 14 to 37 A.D.), sent for Thamus to hear the story for himself, and ask the experts what the deal with Pan was.
I bring up this story in particular to offer support for the theory that I consider well-founded, regarding the pagan gods. Namely, that these 'gods' were demons. Now, this 'theory' is nothing new, and the story I tell was certainly well known in its day. But I just want to point out a couple of things.
First is the strong evidence of the accuracy of some of the ancient oracles, which I do not consider to be at odds with the idea of demonic workings, and that they controlled the oracles and spoke through them; and second is the timing of this story. Note that the emperor is Tiberius - the man who was emperor when Jesus was raised from the dead, and conquered death itself. The traditional date for that death is 30 A.D. - leaving only a span of a few years for the demon Pan to die.
Plutarch himself is probably writing somewhere in the vicinity of 100 A.D. Whether or not the story is true, the timing of the oracles passing away is certainly not to be doubted. Indeed, to those who have eyes to see, is not the Lordship of Christ plainly evident? He has risen, and He has conquered. Even the pagan prophets witness to His glory.
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www.hno.harvard.edu/gazette/2003/10.23/01-creativity.html
Irrelevance can make you mad
By William J. Cromie, Harvard News Office
Creativity Tied to Mental Illness
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Ignoring what seems irrelevant to your immediate needs may be good for your mental health but bad for creativity. Focusing on every sight, sound, and thought that enters your mind can drive a person crazy. It interferes with an animal's hunt for something to eat, or a busy person's efforts to sleep.
As you might guess, psychologists have a term for ignoring the irrelevant; they call it "latent inhibition." A team of them at Harvard has discovered that students who score low in this seemingly vital trait are much more likely to be creative achievers than those who excel in putting things out of their minds.
"Scientists have wondered for a long time why madness and creativity seem linked, particularly in artists, musicians, and writers," notes Shelley Carson, a Harvard psychologist. "Our research results indicate that low levels of latent inhibition and exceptional flexibility in thought predispose people to mental illness under some conditions and to creative accomplishments under others."
Carson, Jordan Peterson (now at the University of Toronto), and Daniel Higgins did experiments to find out what these conditions might be. They put 182 Harvard graduate and undergraduate students through a series of tests involving listening to repeated strings of nonsense syllables, hearing background noise, and watching yellow lights on a video screen. (The researchers do not want to reveal details of how latent inhibition was scored because such tests are still going on with other subjects.)
The students also filled out questionnaires about their creative achievements on a new type of form developed by Carson, and they took standard intelligence tests. When all the scores and test results were compared, the most creative students had lower scores for latent inhibition than the less creative. Some students who scored unusually high in creative achievement were seven times more likely to have low scores for latent inhibition.
These low scorers also had high IQs. "Getting swamped by new information that you have difficulty handling may predispose you to a mental disorder," Carson says. "But if you have high intelligence and a good working memory, you are more likely to be able to combine bits of new information in creative ways."
IQ and Creativity
Whether IQ tests are the best way to measure intelligence is debatable, but some studies do show a correlation between high IQ and creativity. Such studies conclude that the two increase together up to a score of 120. Beyond that level, little increase in creativity has been found. (The average IQ score of the general population is 100.) "We didn't find this," Carson notes. "We saw creativity increase as IQs climb to 130 (the average score of Harvard students), and even up to 150."
Bothered by the nebulousness of IQ tests, Carson is seeking to find "more specific functions" that protect creative people from going nuts. Work already done suggests that a good working memory, the capacity to keep in mind many things at once, can serve such a function. "This should help you to better process the increasing information that goes along with low latent inhibition," Carson explains. "We're doing more experiments to determine if that is so." She and her colleagues also plan to check out ways to reduce the blocking of seeming irrelevance with drugs.
Many creative people have touted the value of alcohol and other stimulants, such as amphetamines, for this purpose. Carson wants to find a way to do the same thing without the unwanted side effects of drugs and alcohol. She is investigating nonaddictive drugs and ways to manipulate biorhythms, the 24-hour sleep-wake cycle, with varying exposures to bright light.
Another possibility goes to the different stages of paying more attention to what is around you. First there's insight, where creative ideas form and which may be enhanced by a buzz of unrelated stimuli. Then comes evaluation and editing, which require focus and concentration. Carson and her colleagues have started testing creative people to see if they can manipulate their attention filter during these different stages.
Creativity and Madness
How can people lower their inhibition quotient and increase creativity on their own? There's really no good answer to that question yet. "We may have identified one of the biological bases of creativity," Carson says, "but it is only one among many. Creativity also is associated with a variety of personality traits, social and family factors, and direct training."
There also remain fundamental biological riddles to solve. Cats, rats, mice, pigeons, and other animals show latent inhibition. When they discover something is useless for helping them to survive, ignoring it helps them survive.
Then there's that mysterious connection between psychosis and creativity to probe. "Highly creative people in our studies," Carson notes, "showed the same latent inhibition patterns found in other studies of schizophrenics. "Both madness and creativity must involve many different genes," Carson points out. "It's not impossible that the two share some of these genes.
It's my hope that future research into this and other areas will help us progress toward silencing the demons of mental disorders that often coexist with the muses of creativity." Until then, the situation is cogently expressed by this old joke: A man is driving past a mental hospital when one of the wheels falls off his car. He stops and recovers the wheel but can't find the lug nuts to secure it back in place.
Just then he notices a man sitting on the curb carefully removing small pebbles from the grass and piling them neatly on the sidewalk. "What am I going to do?" the man asks aloud. The fellow piling the pebbles looks up, and says, "Take one of the lug nuts from each of the other wheels and use them to put the wheel back on."
The driver is amazed. "Wow!" he exclaims. "What a brilliant idea. What are you doing in a place like this?" he asks, nodding toward the mental institution. "Well," the man answers, "I'm crazy, not stupid." "That's exactly what our research is about," Carson comments. "It shows that, to be creative, you can be bright and crazy, but not stupid."
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